Match Focus: The FA Cup Final - A Statistical Preview
The FA Cup Final has in recent years failed to bring together two teams that have been perfectly matched at the bookies in the run up to the game. The likes of Cardiff, Portsmouth and Stoke have made it to Wembley in the last few years and each time those underdogs have failed to cause an upset, with the competition that was previously the pride of British football seemingly having lost much of its competitive edge. This Saturday, Manchester City are huge favourites to overcome a depleted Wigan side who still have their Premier League status to secure with key games either side of the final. In the circumstances, a Latics win is extremely unlikely, and their manager will need to be at his tactical best if he is to become the third consecutive 'Roberto' to manage a team FA Cup glory.
While they would have been considered outsiders anyway, injuries to Martinez's squad could seriously hinder their chances. He could be without 3 of his 11 most used players this season, with Maynor Figueroa (33 Premier League appearances) and Ivan Ramis (16) certain to miss out, as well as Jean Beausejour (34) facing a race to be fit in time. If, as expected, the latter does not make it, the left side of Wigan's starting lineup will have a severely unfamiliar look about it and they will have to adjust their game plan as a result. A vast proportion of their attacking touches of the ball come down that left hand side - 42% to be precise, a proportion only topped by Everton in the Premier League this season - and the personnel behind that statistic are certainly responsible.
Emmerson Boyce usually marshals the right flank, but his more defensive minded approach than that of Beausejour means that just 30% - the lowest proportion in the top flight - of their attacking touches come down the right. That imbalance is often something that teams look to take advantage of, with West Brom recently doing so with an advanced Beausejour out of position, allowing Romelu Lukaku to set Markus Rosenberg free on the right before he crossed for Shane Long to open the scoring. With the Chilean potentially set to miss out, Shaun Maloney or Roger Espinoza could patrol the left flank, and while that will weaken Wigan in a defensive sense on that side, it will also deprive them of their most frequent creator, with Beausejour having provided the third most crosses (excluding corners) in the Premier League this season, with 193.
Furthermore, in Wigan's recent trip to the Etihad on the 17th April, 47% of their touches came down that left flank, and with Nasri playing an inside-right position for the home side, Beausejour took every opportunity to advance up the field, as can be seen in the below infographic portraying the players' average positions during that game.
Wigan keep the ball better than most in the Premier League - particularly better than the other relegation contenders - and they enjoyed 50% possession in that aforementioned meeting. In the teams' last 6 clashes, City have never dominated possession in the way they usually do against 'lesser' teams. On one occasion - at home - they managed 58%, but even that is relatively low for last season's Premier League winners. However, while there is little difference between the sides in terms of keeping the ball, City create significantly more goalscoring chances. In those 6 most recent meetings, Wigan have had just 12 shots on target to City's 26, while the Latics have not netted a single goal and the Citizens have scored 10 times, winning every game.
What Wigan might take heart from, though, is the fact that when they lost 1-0 only a few weeks ago - and managed an equal share of the possession - they had 10 attempts and tested Joe Hart in the opposition goal 4 times. What's more, although City did score through Carlos Tevez, they only managed to make good enough chances for themselves to hit the target on two occasions - their lowest tally in any Premier League game all season. There may have been one or two big names missing from City's starting eleven but all in all Wigan were extremely unfortunate to come away from the game with nothing.
That would normally set things up nicely for this Saturday's finale to the competition. The neutral will be hoping Wigan can stifle the creativity of City's multi-million pound superstars and make a game of it as they did less than a month ago. However, without key players and the additional distraction of being embroiled in a relegation battle, the Latics stand little chance of glory, and Charles N'Zogbia's strike in a 2009 clash between the sides may just remain Wigan's most recent goal against Manchester City for a while longer yet.
