Top Match Tips: The smart money on the weekend's biggest games

This weekend will surely be remembered at the end of the season in England and Spain as there is a real chance that a win for either side in the big games in the Premier League and La Liga will be decisive in May. It will also be remembered in Rome, at least until the next derby… 

BARCELONA VS REAL MADRID: Barcelona winning margin = 1 @4.00 

Is there anything definitive in this Clasico? Psychologically there is, obviously, but also mathematically. Real Madrid hold a 6-point advantage, and the last time they entered the first Clasico of the season with such a significant gap to their rivals, in 2012, it was also the last time they ended up winning the league. Someone might object that they actually lost that Clasico, but it is for exactly this reason that it could be so decisive: because this gap can neutralise even the worst defeat. Real Madrid are aiming to win their second consecutive Clasico for the first time since 2008: which is the only other time they won the league in the last 9 years.  

Luis Enrique has no time to think about history, he must think about the poor performance of his men, in spite of having most back available. Instead Zidane is counting key injuries week after week, and still Real Madrid stretch their lead, with a team spirit and a tactical smartness that has started to see comparisons drawn between Zizou and Ancelotti. There's no Bale, no Kroos and no Morata, with Casemiro unlikely to be fully fit, and some indecision between picking 4-4-1-1 or 4-2-3-1. All of this means that Madrid will have a tight attitude, though they can rely on - what a surprise - Cristiano, the main man, with crucial open space to sail into between Sergi Roberto and Mascherano. While Luis Enrique will pin his hopes more than ever on Messi, but if Neymar's can play to a high standard, it could create the most valuable mismatch of the game against Carvajal. It should be very tight until the end, but Camp Nou could be the decisive variable, that's why the best pick is the hosts to win with only a goal margin, backed at 4.00 by Bet365. 

MANCHESTER CITY VS CHELSEA: Draw @3.60 

Guardiola vs Conte - it's a battle of philosophy and football knowledge that we football fans deserve. They aren't opposite, they are just different and always thinking how to impose their style, but football literature aside, if Chelsea come away from the Etihad Stadium with a win, it could be the turning point of the season. Conte will prepare his side in a similar way to Italy's win over Spain at Euro 2016, but City are undefeated in their last four at home, albeit have drawn three of those.

LAZIO VS ROMA: Lazio to win @2.90

Lazio have not won a derby in the last three years, which was the historic Coppa Italia final in 2013. They are only one point behind Roma, who boast a stronger squad, but one that will miss Mohamed Salah, their most decisive man. The only WhoScored match forecast is that it is very likely Lazio 'will create many scoring chances'.

JUVENTUS VS ATALANTA: Juventus winning margin = 1 @3.60

Juventus must react to the shock defeat to Genoa, but Atalanta have won eight and drawn one of their last nine games, the joint-longest current unbeaten run in Serie A. It's worth noting that Paulo Dybala is back and that Atalanta have lost their last 12 league encounters with Juventus. The WhoScored match forecast offers up only one pre-match prediction - that it is very likely Juventus 'will score from a direct free-kick'.

Click here for detailed match preview news, including predicted line ups

BORUSSIA DORTMUND VS GLADBACH: Both teams to score - no @2.20

It's not about whether Dortmund can win, but on whether Gladbach can at least find the back of the net. Dortmund have the second-best home defence and Gladbach the worst away attack and it's possible that Dortmund can shut out the visitors, with both teams to score - no available at 2.20 on Bet365.