Revealed: Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd stars among Premier League’s biggest xG underperformers
With the international break upon us, we take a look at the biggest xG underperformers using our Expected Goals model of those to have managed 10 or more shots in the Premier League this season.
Stars from Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham all feature in this rundown.
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10. Diogo Jota (Liverpool) - 1.3xG underperformance
Diogo Jota started the season well, grabbing a goal in the opening weekend win at Ipswich before providing an assist against Brentford in Arne Slot’s first league game at Anfield. The Portugal international’s haul of two goals and two assists in six games isn’t to be scoffed at, but considering the quality of the chances presented to him; Jota should have scored at least one more Premier League goal this term.
9. Evanilson (Bournemouth) - 1.4xG underperformance
Bournemouth’s replacement for Dominic Solanke features in ninth. Evanilson got off the mark in the south coast derby win over Southampton last month but the Brazilian has just one goal to his name from six appearances. A huge reason behind an xG underperformance of 1.4 is his penalty miss in the eventual 1-0 loss to Chelsea last month.
8. Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth) - 1.4xG underperformance
Remaining at the Vitality Stadium, Marcus Tavernier, like teammate Evanilson, has only scored once in the Premier League this season, though our Expected Goals model suggests that he is underperforming his xG by 1.4. Tavernier has managed multiple efforts on goal in five of his seven league appearances this season, so surely it’s only a matter of time before he puts a run together.
7. Kai Havertz (Arsenal) - 1.5xG underperformance
While Kai Havertz has scored four league goals this season and is on course to enjoy his best goal haul in a Premier League campaign, the German should, in theory, have at least five to his name. Indeed, Havertz is underperforming his xG by 1.5 and while he is a player not to be judged by goals alone, a little more composure in the final third would certainly aid the Gunners’ title push.
6. Mohammed Kudus (West Ham) - 1.5xG underperformance
Mohammed Kudus finally got off the mark in the Premier League this season in West Ham’s resounding 4-1 win over Ipswich at the weekend. Kudus hasn’t shied away from chancing his luck in 2024/25, averaging 3.1 shots per 90, but the Hammers star, like Havertz, is underperforming his xG by 1.5. Supporters will hope he can improve this return with the trip to Tottenham to come after the international break.
5. Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton) - 1.5xG underperformance
It’s no coincidence that Brighton have looked far more effective in the final third with Kaoru Mitoma back in the starting XI. The Japan international tore the Tottenham backline to shreds in a Player of the Match performance on Sunday afternoon, though his Expected Goals tally suggests that Mitoma has returned an xG underperformance of -1.5, a figure he’ll hope to improve upon in the coming weeks.
4. Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace) - 1.7xG underperformance
Eberechi Eze has been doing all he can to help Crystal Palace end their winless start to the season having averaged 3.9 shots per 90. However, with just one goal to his name, Eze himself is underperforming his xG by 1.7. It’s only a matter of time before Palace put three points on the board for the first time but they’ll need the England international to start putting some of his chances away.
3. Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) - 1.9xG underperformance
This season has already been one to forget for Manchester United. They have won only two of seven league matches to leave them mired in the bottom half. Bruno Fernandes has also struggled in front of goal, firing off 18 shots without scoring, the most in the Premier League. Fernandes came perilously close to ending his barren run against Aston Villa, striking the crossbar in the second half, but even so; a -1.9 xG underperformance is the third highest in the division so far.
2. Dominic Solanke (Tottenham) - 2.0xG underperformance
Dominic Solanke hasn’t struggled in a Tottenham shirt, and two goals and one assist in England’s top tier is a solid return for a player getting up to speed with his new teammates. However, he should have double the number of goals already for the north London side, with the striker’s expected goals haul suggesting he should have netted four times so far.
1. Adama Traore (Fulham) - 2.2xG underperformance
Whenever Adama Traore is on the ball, there’s always a chance that Fulham will score such is the winger’s explosiveness down the right. And yet, the Spain international has just one goal to his name despite an average of 2.6 shots per 90. Adama finds himself in promising positions, yet so often fluffs his lines. With that, the 28-year-old has returned an xG underperformance of 2.2, the largest of its kind in the Premier League this season.
