Match Focus: Athletic vs Atletico

When you think of the top eight teams in Europe the usual behemoths of European football come to mind; Barcelona and Real Madrid, Manchester United, Bayern Munich, AC Milan and given their domestic success this season maybe even Borussia Dortmund, Juventus and Manchester City.

Atlético Madrid, though, probably wouldn’t. Los Rojiblancos have barely managed to make La Liga’s top eight for most of this season, but, should an unlikely combination of results this weekend mean they do qualify for next season’s Champions League, that is exactly where they would be in Uefa’s coefficient rating behind the aforementioned Barça, United, Bayern, Real plus Arsenal and Inter.

The 2010 winners have stormed back to the final of the Europa League, winning a European record 11 straight games under two different managers this season and including qualifiers they have won 16 and drawn one of their 18 European games this campaign.

So why such a disparity between domestic and European form? Atleti’s win percentage of 89% in the Europa League is more than double their 38% on the domestic front, whilst they have also scored significantly more (2.5 to 1.4) and conceded less (0.69 to 1.24) goals per game.

The question is even more pressing given their opponents in the final, Athletic Bilbao, are in a similar and, indeed arguably even more polarised, situation. The Basques could even finish in the bottom-half of La Liga as their poor form in recent weeks has seen them slip to 10th and their 32% win percentage in the league means they have won as many games as relegation threatened Rayo Vallecano and Granada.

The most partisan explanation coming out of the Spanish peninsula has been that the quality of La Liga is such that Atleti, Athletic and, another semi-finalist Valencia, have simply found things easier going on a Thursday night compared to the weekend, but the truth is more likely linked to the impact the Europa League has had on their domestic form.

Even when coping with the dual rigours of Champions League football and La Liga prior to Christmas, Valencia managed 33 points from 16 games (2.06 points per game) compared to 28 in 21 games (1.3 points per game) when combining the Europa League, Copa del Rey and league commitments in 2012.

Atleti boss Diego Simone made pointed remarks prior to last weekend’s 2-1 win over Malaga about having to compete with those that “had played only one competition” and his side have suffered costly defeats at Levante and Mallorca as well as draws at Real Betis and Sporting Gijon when playing less than three days after Europa League commitments.

However, even Atleti’s 59-game season hasn’t been as demanding as Athletic’s workload of 63 matches, a run which has seen them play every midweek since January.

Yet, both have managed to summon the energy required to between them eliminate a top four side in England, Germany, Italy and Spain (Manchester United, Schalke, Lazio and Valencia) on their road to Bucharest.

Should tiredness take its toll, Athletic may have the upper hand as Marcelo Bielsa rested nine of those expected to start on Wednesday at the weekend whilst Simeone fielded a full-strength side, but more than anything this should be an interesting clash of styles.

Unsurprisingly for a side managed by Simeone, it is likely that Atleti will be the aggressors having committed the most fouls in La Liga (18 per game). However, Bielsa’s Bilbao have many traits, with one of the most significant being how they hunt for possession. They have made the second highest number of successful tackles per game at 24.8.

Although not necessarily a dirty side, Bielsa’s prefered style of play has also contributed to eight red cards, double Atleti’s tally of four, many of which have been for last man challenges as a result of how high they press. That openness once their pressing is penetrated is also noticeable in the fact they’ve conceded the third highest number of shots on goal at 15.1 per game.

However, when in possession they are more considered. Athletic like to dictate the flow of the game with an average of 57% of possession and their fabled threat from set-pieces continues. Once again they have literally hit the heights when it comes to headed goals in La Liga and that is an area they could exploit in Atleti’s backline as the Madrid side have come fourth from bottom in aerial duels won in Spain.

For Simeone’s men the plan is more reserved. In March they beat Athletic 2-1 thanks to two Radamel Falcao goals despite enjoying just 36% of possession as they patiently waited for space to exploit on the counter-attack.

With Diego now back in the fold they should be able to feed Adrián and Falcao, who have scored 18 goals between them in the competition to date, even more quickly and accurately than they did that freezing night at the Calderon just two months ago.

However, there was also a major absentee in Bilbao colours that night. Fernando Llorente’s goal and two assists in the semi-final second-leg against Sporting Lisbon is just one illustration of how fundamental he is to Bielsa’s gameplan.

Moreover, there is also a precedent for Bielsa to build on, in these two sides other previous meeting this season it was Athletic who emerged 3-0 victors. On that occasion it was Llorente who scored twice.

With both sides progress to this point so dependent on El Rey León and El Tigre, whoever wins the battle between the lion and the tiger is likely to go a long way to deciding on which plane the trophy will be headed on its return to Spain come Thursday.