Can injury-hit Real upset the odds in finely poised Madrid derby?

Things at the top half of the La Liga table are interestingly poised, with an international break coming at exactly the wrong time for the cluster of teams who find themselves edging towards the Champions League places - but Real Madrid might just have been glad of an extra week to get some familiar faces back to first-team fitness. 

Atletico Madrid are the sternest test that Zinedine Zidane has been posed with this campaign, with a visit to the Vicente Calderon presenting a side who haven’t tasted defeat on home soil in the league since September 2015. Since then, only Los Blancos themselves, Sevilla, Villarreal and Alaves have taken away points from Diego Simeone’s notorious fortress - but Real Madrid haven’t won in this derby for three-and-a-half years. 

For the decade preceding 2013, it would be unthinkable for Real Madrid to not put their noisy neighbours to the sword, but Diego Simeone’s philosophy and injuries have shunted Atletico to the point where they might just be considered favourites on Saturday. 

Over a year ago, Real Madrid lined up much the same as they are expected to this time around, but injuries are set to be one of the main factors in what should be a weekend purely about the high standard of football in prospect. Toni Kroos and Casemiro were deployed in midfield by Rafa Benitez, but Zidane can call upon neither of them this weekend due to injury, with his midfield lacking balance as a result. 

“Concerned? There are other players available, a derby is a derby. The players are there and available,” midfielder Marco Asensio told Goal on Wednesday. While the young Spain international might not be losing any sleep over the chance to get some first-team minutes, which have been getting increasingly rare for him as the season has progressed, Zidane might not have such a clear mind. 

After losing Casemiro due to a fractured fibula early in the season, absences for Luka Modric and Toni Kroos continued to unsettle Real Madrid’s midfield, with key men Cristiano Ronaldo, Pepe, Karim Benzema and Sergio Ramos also spending time on the sidelines this campaign due to injury concerns. Alvaro Morata is the latest man to find himself on the treatment table, after the striker picked up a hamstring injury during Spain’s international friendly against England on Tuesday. That lack of consistency could prove telling. Isco slotted home a late equaliser at Wembley this week to end a run of seven games without a goal, and should play a number 10 role on Saturday, as Zidane has thrown caution to the wind a little since Casemiro’s injury. 

Isco is playing 1.4 key passes per game in La Liga, registering two goals and two assists, and the Spaniard will be required to float in between the lines when Real Madrid go on the offensive against what should be a compact 4-4-2 formation from Simeone. A statistic of 0.1 through balls per match, however, does suggest that Diego Godin and Stefan Savic might not be turned all too often when Real Madrid’s build-up play comes from central areas. 

The return of Luka Modric, however, cannot be understated, as the Croatia captain made it through 45 minutes of a World Cup qualifier unscathed last week. His opening five La Liga appearances of the season earned him a 7.46 average rating and around 46 passes per game, making him the heartbeat of the team - especially given Kroos’ absence. His 1.2 key passes per match from deeper areas could prove to be the catalyst required to break down a tough Atleti rearguard, but Simeone will be well aware of the diminutive playmaker. 

Sergio Ramos, too, could be a main protagonist after an injury lay-off. A possible lack of match fitness mixed in with a disciplinary record that has boasted four yellow cards in six La Liga games this season, however, could see the Spaniard take the headlines for the wrong reasons in a fiery derby. For the hosts, Antoine Griezmann is an injury doubt after picking up a knock on international duty. The ex-Real Sociedad man travelled back to Madrid after playing a role in France’s 2-1 win over Sweden, but wasn’t risked for Tuesday’s friendly, watching a bore draw with Ivory Coast on his sofa instead.  

“I think Griezmann will make the derby,” Saul Niguez told AS this week. “He knows how to deal with the pain. He knows what this means for the team, and he will work hard to make it.” After scoring six goals in 10 league appearances, Griezmann’s form is key, but Atleti aren’t without players who can pick up the slack should their star man only make the bench.  

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Yannick Carrasco has arguably been on an ever-increasing high since giving a fantastic performance in last season’s Champions League final against Real Madrid, nailing down his place on the left-hand side of Simeone’s midfield as a result. The Belgian is playing potentially the best football of his career, and as his deflected strike for the national team against the Netherlands seems to suggest, anything the 23-year-old touches recently turns to goals. 

Real Madrid are top of the La Liga table after 11 matches, two points clear of closest rivals Barcelona, and six points above fierce neighbours and this weekend’s opposition Atletico Madrid. “It is a very important game for us,” Atleti captain Gabi explained to Marca. “We are competitive with them now, which a few years ago was unthinkable. We have reached their level, but now we are six points behind. If we win we will be back in the fight.” 

A home win, and Atletico go within touching distance of the current league leaders, opening up the possibility for Barcelona to leapfrog Los Blancos this weekend, but La Liga could quickly turn into a two-horse race should an injury-hit Real Madrid secure an unlikely three points.