What next for Chelsea as Potter struggles to fix Chelsea's floundering frontline
With no Premier League games for six weeks, teams up and down the division strived to finish the first portion of the season on a high at the weekend. Unfortunately for Chelsea, they did the opposite.
A 1-0 defeat at the hands of Newcastle means the Blues failed to win any of their final five league games before the World Cup break. That result at St James’ Park leaves them eighth in the table, as close to the bottom three as the top four in terms of points. Graham Potter’s side have a mountain to climb if they are to qualify for the Champions League this term.
The honeymoon period is well and truly over for Potter, who went unbeaten in his first nine games in all competitions. There is little danger of the former Brighton boss losing his job any time soon, but questions are beginning to be asked of Thomas Tuchel’s replacement.
Particularly concerning is the feebleness of Chelsea’s attack. Since the campaign began they have scored just 17 goals – fewer than Bournemouth, Leeds United and Brentford, and only the 13th-most in the division.
This issue predates Potter’s tenure, although it is worth noting Chelsea are averaging 1.13 goals per game under their current manager compared to 1.33 per match during Tuchel’s time in charge this season.
Despite some often eye-catching approach play, Potter’s Brighton were at times let down by their profligacy inside the penalty area. Worryingly for Chelsea, the present problem is principally one of creation rather than conversion.
Chelsea (11.1) rank way down in 14th for both shots per game – below even bottom-of-the-table Wolves (11.8) – and expected goals. Alarmingly, they are 20th out of 20 for attempts inside the six-yard box with just 0.4 per game. They are simply not creating enough clear-cut opportunities for a team with top-four aspirations.
Saturday’s loss to Newcastle demonstrated many of Chelsea’s shortcomings. The Blues had marginally more possession, but Newcastle took exactly double their five shots. Potter’s men had just seven touches inside the opposition box. Their heatmap from the game neatly illustrates Chelsea’s inability to penetrate the penalty area.
Not for the first time, Potter’s team selection was puzzling. With Mason Mount and Conor Gallagher supporting Armando Broja up front, Chelsea lacked both invention and ball-carrying ability in the final third. They were continually unable to beat Newcastle’s press, allowing the home team to dominate the game.
Some of the changes have been enforced amid a substantial injury list, but Potter has received considerable flak from Chelsea fans for his tinkering. He regularly changes the system as well as the personnel. This was something he did at Brighton too, but that was successful because the squad were well versed in the coach’s methods. Right now, Chelsea look lost.
There are mitigating circumstances. Tuchel struggled when Reece James and Ben Chilwell were out injured last season, so it is no surprise that Potter’s team have suffered a dip since both players entered the treatment room. The 3-4-2-1 formation that Chelsea used against Newcastle was ineffective in large part because Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Lewis Hall – both midfielders by trade – do not offer the same dynamism down the flanks as James and Chilwell.
Big summer signings like Raheem Sterling and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are yet to get going. The former has scored three goals in 12 Premier League outings; the latter has found the net once in six outings.
Much like Chelsea as a whole, Sterling’s shots are down significantly. At Manchester City last term, he averaged 2.4 per 90 minutes. This season he is managing just 1.7 per 90.
Granted, City are a better team than Chelsea and the England international has been used in various different roles, including at wing-back. But even Sterling would admit he has struggled for form since moving to Stamford Bridge.
Aubameyang, meanwhile, does not seem like a natural Potter forward. Even at his peak the Gabonese offered little beyond goals. Now that those have dried up, it is hard to see what he offers.
"We’re not in a fantastic moment," Potter admitted after the 1-0 loss to Arsenal at the start of the month.
"We didn’t function as fluently as we would like. If I am looking at how we build our attacks generally, we not as fluid and in as good a place as I would like us to be."
In handing Potter a five-year contract just two months ago, the Chelsea hierarchy indicated that they see this as a long-term project. But if Potter is to avoid mounting criticism, he must find a way to get Chelsea’s attack firing after the World Cup break.
