Stats Analysis: Goals Key in Ligue 1 Relegation Battle

Last season the relegation places in Ligue 1 weren't decided until the last day of the season. On that day no fewer than seven clubs could have made the drop to Ligue 2. Even Monaco who finished the season in 18th place could have finished 10th if results had gone their way.

This season it looks like the relegation battle will be as close, if not closer, and provide last day drama to the Ligue 1 season. With 17 games left, only 6 points separate the 10 sides from Brest in 11th to Nice at the bottom. It is probably the closest relegation battle in Europe.

Monaco, Lens and Arles-Avignon were the three teams to make the drop and crucially only Monaco from the three teams relegated had anyone in their squad to score goals in the double figures. Caen survived with the goals of Moroccoan Youssouf El-Arabi, Valenciennes relied on Gregory Pujol and Montpellier were grateful to Olivier Giroud for his 12 strikes.

This season the relegation places seem to be following the same trend. To stay in this division you need someone to provide the goals. Here are the players that could be the difference between relegation or survival.

Eric Mouloungui - OGC Nice - 4 goals

Sitting rock bottom of Ligue 1 after the defeat to Montpellier, Nice have been very unlucky with their striking options this season. Xavier Pentecote was signed from Toulouse to score goals. A knee injury will rule him out for most of the season. Abraham Guie Guie was signed for Tours in the summer but after four starts and 10 substitute appearances he has yet to break his duck.

The pressure has then turned to the Gabon international Mouloungui. Last season the striker managed eight goals as Nice managed to avoid relegation. Averaging 2.4 shots a game the forward managed to find the net with 9% of his 83 shots on goal. This season has so far shown signs of improvement from the 27-year old. His shot per game average has gone up to 2.9, though unfortunately only 8% have found the net.

Mouloungui is versatile and can play centrally or wide. He is the best option Nice have as a target-man and wins half of his aerial battles so can be used as an aerial option, constantly playing on the last shoulder of the defender to add that danger in-behind. The only thing Mouloungui needs to do now is find the back of the net. If he doesn't, Nice might not avoid the drop this season.

Cedric Bakambu - FC Sochaux - 3 goals

What a fall from grace Sochaux have endured this season after finishing in the top five was such a great end to an impressive campaign last year. 15 goals each from Modibo Maiga and Brown Ideye fired Les Lionceaux up the table. It was always going to be hard to replicate that success but no one thought they would drop to 19th under new boss Mehmet Bazdarevic.

The sale of Ideye and Maiga's disruptive antics will not have helped Sochaux's situation. Now they have to buckle down and look for a new hero that can keep them in Ligue 1.

Two years ago the then 17-year old Bakambu raised a few eyebrows with his impressive performances for France at the U19 European Championships. Now his club are placing more faith in the 20-year old as they look to find a goal-scoring solution to their poor league position.

The striker has only made five starts this season but already has three goals to his name. With 19 shots on goal that is an impressive 16% conversion rate. A very strong and powerful player, he adds pace and agility to his game to devastating effect at times.

His goal at the weekend against Lorient showed what he can do from distance, while a late goal against Lille in September showed his aerial abilities. Hopefully too much pressure isn't laid on the young man's shoulders, but they do seem broad enough to carry the extra baggage.

Gregory Pujol - Valenciennes - 2 goals

There is no doubt that the 17 goals Gregory Pujol scored last season kept his Valenciennes side up in Ligue 1. His best ever haul for a career that started back in 2001 for Nantes - the 31-year old enjoyed what was somewhat of an Indian summer.

Avoiding injury, he played 33 games and only needed 71 shots to find the net 17 times. That is an amazing 24% conversation rate - unbelievable form for a striker that had never scored more than 10 league goals for any club. There was talk of Pujol being sold on in the summer, but of course this didn't happen and this season has been such a contrast for the 32-year old.

The striker has been plagued by injuries and suspensions and has only made six starts so far. A superb aerial presence and an ability to be in the right place at the right time; he is a true goal poacher and links up the play from midfield to attack better than most.

Two goals in those games and 20 shots on goal show that, when fit, Pujol is a danger but if he can't stay fit then it really puts the pressure on young Cameroonian forward Vincent Aboubakar. The 20-year old has three goals in 11 starts this season and looks a great young player. Valenciennes will need both strikers at their best if they are to beat the drop.

Eduardo Ribeiro - AC Ajaccio - 2 goals

Could former Lens striker Ribeiro be the man that fires Ajaccio to safety this season? Bought during the January window the Brazilian striker has two goals in two games for his new club. Both goals have given his side six valuable points and saw them move out of the drop-zone and up to 15th. Ajaccio are now on a four game winning streak in the league, their best ever run in Ligue 1 history.

In his three year spell at Lens the forward only managed 10 goals in 77 games so it looks like Olivier Pantaloni has lit a spark under Eduardo and if this form can be maintained and the goals continue to come from the Brazilian it could prove to be a excellent signing for the Corsican side.

Other teams in the danger area include Brest, who sold striker Nolan Roux to Lille. They have made two attacking signings, including Tunisian Issam Jemaa from Auxerre. Nancy have Romanian Daniel Niculae to rely on, and his five goals have been vital so far with their other options up front limited.

After starting well this season Caen find themselves on the edge of the relegation zone. Franck Dumas' side have really struggled to find the net in recent weeks. Livio Nabab, Kandia Traore, M'Baye Niang and Pierre-Alain Frau have six goals between them, with four of those goals coming solely from the latter.

At this stage in the season it is impossible to put your money on what teams will stay up and who will go down, the smart money will be on the side who's striker finds form at the right time. If one of the four strikers above can hit double figures their respective side would be very confident of remaining in Ligue 1.