Player Focus: Players with the Biggest Effect on Win Rate
The presence of just one player in the starting lineup of a team shouldn't really be enough to have too drastic an effect on performances. In an ideal world, at least, while teams will have star players, they will also be able to call for reinforcement when necessary without too great a compromise in ability on the pitch. The reality of the matter is, however, that most teams simply do not possess such luxuries and in fact, when certain players are out injured, the effect on the team can be vast.
While the loss of superstars like Lionel Messi and Robin van Persie will hit their team hardest and unsurprisingly so, others across Europe's top 5 leagues are equally important to the fortunes of their employers but slip under the radar somewhat. By the same token, the inclusion of others has rather adverse consequences for a team's display, and arguably could be deemed surplus to requirements now that the season is over and their managers can look back at where and why things went wrong. Of players to have both started and missed at least 10 games this season, there are some interesting players amongst those to have had the biggest effect on the win rates of their side.
During his time at Chelsea, Salomon Kalou was rarely celebrated as a player, often disparaged as providing insufficient quality to substantiate his undoubtedly hefty wage. Since his summer transfer to the 2011 French champions Lille, however, the Ivorian seems to have rediscovered the form that won him his move to London in the first place. With 12 goals in just 15 starts as a centre forward, Kalou made his way into WhoScored's Ligue 1 team of the season, up front alongside Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
After a slow and rather bit-part start to life at Lille, Kalou made the striker spot his own from February onwards with Nolan Roux faltering and struggling for goals. The former Feyenoord and Chelsea man scored 11 goals in his final 12 games of the season, helping his side to an average of 2.04 points per game when he started, compared to just 0.85 when he was on the bench or unavailable. In fact, Lille won 15 of the 25 matches Kalou started (60%) but only 1 of the 13 he missed (7.7%); the difference of 52.3% is a bigger effect than any other player had in Europe's top 5 leagues this season.
35-year old Lazio striker Miroslav Klose might have failed to score in 14 of his final 15 league and European appearances of the past season, but the other of those matches was one of his most clinical. From just 6 shots, Klose scored 5 times as Lazio ran out 6-0 victors over Bologna. While he may not have been scoring consistently, his return to fitness at the end of March provided a timely boost to the Biancocelesti, who might have missed out on Europa League qualification through the league, but overcame bitter rivals Roma in the Coppa Italia final at the end of the season. Klose's presence cannot be underestimated, with the side having won 61.5% of their Serie A games this season with him starting, compared to just 16.7% without him - the second biggest such difference across Europe.
Another striker ranks shortly behind Klose in these standings, with Brandão proving crucial to St Etienne in his debut season at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. For a large part of the season it looked a distinct possibility that Les Verts might just make Champions League qualification, only to tail off at the end and having to settle for fifth place and the Europa League. With only 11 goals he did not set the league alight - he wasn't even his team's top goalscorer - but his presence in the starting lineup meant that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was shifted out wide, where he was - surprisingly - much more effective in his scoring exploits. In 18 starts on the wing Aubameyang scored 12 goals, compared to 6 in his 18 starts as the lone forward. Accordingly, with Brandão starting (21 games), Saint Etienne won 61.9% of the time, compared to just 17.6% when he didn't (17 games).
Yassine Jebbour, the Moroccan under-21 full-back who signed for Nancy in January, had a profound effect on their results. After winning only one of their opening 21 games of the season, Jebbour's first start for his new club came against Lorient, a game which they won 2-1. The club went on to win 8 of their final 17 games, which was very nearly, but not quite enough to escape relegation to the second tier.
Finishing off the top 5 is Inter's Diego Milito, whose injury just 2 weeks after the end of the January transfer window left Andrea Stramaccioni without a recognised striker other than 35-year old Tommaso Rocchi. The loss of Milito proved near fatal, as they dropped off the pace at the top of the league and ended up finishing 9th, 33 points behind league winners Juventus. With Milito starting this season, Inter won 63.1% of their Serie A games, scoring 1.74 goals per game, whilst winning just 21.0% of the time without him, netting 1.16 times per game. Inter fans can only sit back and wonder what might have been for Strama and his team this term.
Also of note are Espanyol centre-back Diego Colotto, Aston Villa forward Andi Weimann, Werder Bremen's Eljero Elia, Norwich striker Grant Holt and Nancy's Thomas Mangani. Each of these players had such vast effect on their respective teams that they won between 34% and 40% of their matches with their key man in the starting lineup, but failed to win any of the matches that those players missed. For Werder, Villa and Nancy, that was a whole 12 games without Elia, Weimann and Mangani and not a single win from any of those matches.
At the other end of the scale, players having the worst effect on their team's results stand out for all the wrong reasons. Benjamin Stambouli missed a chunk of the season with a foot injury, but his return to first team action for Montpellier even when fit is rather questionable, with the 2012 champions winning just 2 of the 18 Ligue 1 matches he started compared to 13 of the 20 he missed; the biggest such difference in Europe's top 5 leagues. The presence of Saint Etienne's Faouzi Ghoulam had the second worst effect on his side, who won just 21.1% of the time with him in the starting lineup and 63.2% without him.
Phil Jones was recently hailed by Sir Alex Ferguson as having the potential to become one of Manchester United's best ever players. While there is little doubting his ability and potential to be a very good footballer and regular for both United and England, it wasn't all that shocking to see many people turn their noses up at such a remark. Jones has proven an extremely prudent signing. Despite his tender years and a hefty fee, his skill and versatility means he can play in a number of different positions with the accomplishment of a seasoned professional. Injury has blighted his short career, though, and once again, he missed a chunk of the season. When he was missing from the starting lineup, the Red Devils won 88% of their matches, compared to just 46.1% with him. Of course, winning nearly half of your matches is hardly a poor return, but for the eventual champions, and relative to their record when he does play, it is rather unimpressive.
Jones does tend to play the big games - take, for example, Ferguson's decision to start him at the Bernabeu and then against Chelsea and Manchester City either side of an ankle injury. United failed to win any of those matches, but more pertinent of those games that Jones started and United failed to win are disappointing draws at West Brom, West Ham and Swansea. Jones is not currently having the effect on his team that one of their 'greatest ever players' should.
Steven Naismith never really got off the ground at Goodison Park. Despite remaining fit and available for the whole season he made only 13 starts, and despite scoring 4 goals - a decent return from right midfield - the Toffees only won 2 of those games, against Aston Villa and Newcastle. Kevin Mirallas made the position his own, however, and Everton went on to win 14 of their 25 games without Naismith starting. With Roberto Martinez taking over for next season, maybe he'll take this into account and Naismith's rather uneventful first season in the Premier League may turn out to be his only one.
