Player Focus: What Diego Costa's Absence Would Mean for Spain's Strikeforce

Even in his own calmly serene manner, Vicente Del Bosque couldn’t hide Diego Costa’s utter importance to Spain. “We will wait until the last minute before making our decision”, the manager said, as doubt persisted about the nature of the Atlético Madrid forward’s muscle injury.

There remains a real possibility Costa could miss out on the World Cup, after what has been a frustrating last few weeks. The 25-year-old limped out of his club’s title decider at Camp Nou and then the Champions League final against Real Madrid. If he were to also drop out of Brazil 2014, it would undeniably weaken Spain’s stride too.

The introduction of Costa should not be underestimated. When looked at in the correct context, he is the greatest jolt to the world champions’ set-up since 2010 - and not just because of that notoriously abrasive style of play.

They are a team in need of new energy, both in terms of attack and intensity, which is exactly what Costa offers. He provides the purest type of pace, physicality and penetration - all aspects which Del Bosque has effectively lacked since South Africa.

Of course, not all of that is Spain’s fault. The nature of their possession game has pushed opposition sides back to the most extreme type of defending any international side has ever faced. It was something first seen in that opening game of 2010, a response to Spain’s Euro 2008 victory and their fluidly flawless qualifying campaign. Brazil 1970 did not encounter that complete minimisation of space around the opposition box.

It was somewhat fortuitous for Del Bosque, however, that Spain at that point possessed the perfect striker to both maximise that space and still perpetuate the team’s specific style. David Villa’s mercurial movement gave all that passing an outlet, with his finishing adding end product. It is no coincidence he scored all Spain’s key goals until the semi-finals, driving them through.

Villa’s 2011 injury, however, caused a rethink. Teams kept sitting back deep, but Spain didn’t have the same cutting edge. So, Del Bosque had to try something else. Part of the rationale behind the contentious false-nine system was specifically to draw defences out, since backlines now no longer have an obvious reference point of a normal striker to mark.

It also removed a reference point for Spain, however, and ensured their attacks became a bit too circular - culminating in a circular debate. Spain’s centre-forward position became one of the most discussed single positions in the international game, up with there with Italy’s playmaker in Mexico 1970 and England’s left side for about a decade.

Costa simply removes that debate. His effect is that clear, his style that distinctive.

David Silva explained exactly that to The Independent recently. “It’s his pace,” the Manchester City playmaker said. “He’s so quick and, well, he’s got a very good scoring rate. I hope he can repeat it in the World Cup.”

If he can, it would make such an obvious difference. Costa is simply way ahead of all the other options that Del Bosque is considering, with an average of 0.77 goals a game in the league this season. The closest is Juventus’ Fernando Llorente with 0.47.

Of course, as with Villa in his prime, it is not just about the goals. It is about the movement. Most strikingly, Costa offers a directness that Spain have lacked. He is simply much more willing to move and create problems. That is revealed in the amount of dribbles he tries (4.8 per game) and the amount of times he’s caught offside (1.4 per game). None of the others really come close. Crucially, Costa also has a fine passing percentage, with only Álvaro Negredo marginally ahead at 76.7% compared to 75.5%. 

It’s not just about the passing either. There’s also the problems he has caused when not directly involved. Costa is fouled 3.3 times per game, three times more than any other striker in the preliminary Spain squad. That shows the amount he occupies defences, which would notionally allow so many attacking midfielders to surge through.

Costa’s importance, then, is as clear as Del Bosque implied. If he is injured, it’s going to be interesting to see what the Spanish manager does. Del Bosque has been looking for a reason to include Villa, which his own performance in the Champions League final may allow. Even then, though, it is not the Villa of 2010. It is not Costa.

We may see more use of the false nine. Right now, Del Bosque would seem to have only one true option that can properly reinvigorate and reshape Spain’s attack. It could be important.

How do you think Spain will line up if Costa is ruled out through injury? Let us know in the comments below