Match Focus: In-Form Firmino the Player to Exploit Lahm's Absence

On Tuesday evening, Roberto Firmino opened his Brazil account in spectacular style, rifling past Ramazan Özcan from 25 yards as the Seleção secured a 2-1 win over Austria. Having been in fine form for club side Hoffenheim, Firmino made his mark on the international stage, finally rising to the Brazil fold after a series of impressive Bundesliga performances. 

Earlier that same day, Bayern Munich confirmed captain and midfield lynchpin Philipp Lahm had suffered a broken ankle in training and will be sidelined for the next 3 months. Manager Pep Guardiola has previoiusly made his admiration of Lahm very public, and he will be extremely disappointed to lose him for such a lengthy period. 

Two seperate events that may alter the dynamic of one upcoming fixture. Bayern host Hoffenheim at the Allianz Arena this weekend, with Markus Gisdol’s side currently 10 points behind the reigning champions in Germany's top tier. At home, one would be foolish to bet against Bayern, but the loss of Lahm opens up a greater possibility of Hoffenheim springing an upset. 

In the last 6 league meetings between the two sides in Munich, Bayern are unbeaten, winning 5. The defending champions have conceded just 5 goals in those 6 matches, though 3 of those came in the corresponding fixture last season. That day, Firmino bagged the equaliser for Hoffenheim in a match Lahm did not start, the former Germany international replacing Thiago Alcántara after 25 minutes due to injury. However, it is worth noting that the 3-3 draw with Hoffenheim was the first match after Bayern were confirmed as champions, so they can be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas in the league as a result. 

This time around, despite having progressed to the next round of the Champions League and with a 4 point cushion at the summit of the Bundesliga, Guardiola will be keen to win the clash. Bayern do have stand-ins ready to take Lahm’s place in the middle of the park, notably Sebastian Rode, Gianluca Gaudino and wantaway midfielder Pierre-Emile Höjbjerg, but none carry the same threat as the Bayern captain. 

Bayern have dominated sides in the Bundesliga this season - their average possession (65.4%) is the most in Europe’s top 5 leagues - with the help of Lahm and Xabi Alonso in midfield. Crucially, with Alonso sitting deeper, Lahm helps overload the right side of the pitch pushing forward, but the German has the positional sense to perform his defensive duties when needed. 

It’s these duties that Bayern will miss while their skipper is sidelined and it’s here where Hoffenheim can capitalise on Lahm’s absence. Firmino is a threat to any side on his day, but having netted on just his second international appearance of his career, the 23-year-old's confidence will be sky high. Each of the Brazilian’s 11 league starts have come in the number 10 role, where he has excelled this season - Firmino’s WhoScored rating (7.62) is the 10th best in the Bundesliga so far. 

The young Brazil international does not remain in a central position over the 90 minutes, however, which is an advantage to Hoffenheim. Firmino prefers to drift across the final third, getting on the ball as much as possible to attack the opposition. With Lahm missing, Hoffenheim boss Markus Gisdol may ask Firmino to direct his trickery towards the left of the attacking midfield three in his favoured 4-2-3-1 formation, exploiting the space that Lahm would usually help to cover. 

Only 4 players are averaging more successful dribbles per game in the Bundesliga this season than Firmino (3.2), so limiting the Brazilian’s impact was always going to be tough task for the champions, but that difficulty level rises significantly now that Lahm is unavailable. At home, Bayern are likely to control proceedings from the outset, regardless of Lahm’s injury, but Firmino is the ideal attacker to capitalise on any potential goalscoring chances presented to Hoffenheim. Only Arjen Robben (4.7) and Karim Bellarabi (4.5) are having more shots per game in Germany’s top tier this term than Firmino (3.5). 

3 goals in his last 3 competitive appearances after just 1 in his previous 11 highlights that the Brazilian has re-discovered his goalscoring touch at just the right time. Meanwhile, an average of 2.6 tackles and 1 interception per game, an impressive return for an attacker, indicates how Firmino, despite his slight stature, does not shirk his defensive duties. Pressing the Bayern defence and midfield will be crucial to not only limiting the hosts’ attacking opportunities, but also creating chances of their own. 

Hoffenheim may come into the game on the back of consecutive league defeats, but Lahm’s injury presents them with a good opportunity to end their recent dip in form. In Firmino, Hoffenheim boast an attacker who often steps up to the grand occasion and it does not get grander in the Bundesliga than a trip to the Allianz. 

Lahm’s broken ankle is going to be a bigger blow to Bayern than some might like to admit. ‘FC Hollywood’ are a side teeming with talent, but Lahm is the glue that holds the team together. Bayern’s season is unlikely to come apart at the seams while their captain is sidelined, but suddenly this weekend’s meeting with Hoffenheim becomes a potential banana skin, with Firmino tipped to play a key role when the two teams clash on Saturday.

Do you think Hoffenheim have a chance of springing an upset when they face Bayern at the Allianz Arena this weekend? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below