The Four Key Angles to Determine Euro 2016's Semi-finalists

Poland vs Portugal 

A huge opportunity for one of these sides, heightened by the feeling there’s not that much between them. On the face of it, in fact, they’re quite similar in make-up. Poland have a balanced squad behind one big star in Robert Lewandowski. Portugal have a slightly better squad behind an even bigger star in Cristiano Ronaldo. That should just tilt it in the latter’s favour, but it obviously isn’t that simple. Even though Poland made very hard work of getting through their last-16 game against Switzerland, in what was probably their worst performance of the tournament so far, it does feel as if they have a better idea of what they are as a team. They just look more cohesive, a bit more committed to a clearer idea. That perhaps explains why they have a bit more bite than the Portuguese with 15.5 tackles per game compared to 13.3, but they’re going to need to be even clever about that to stop Ronaldo getting one of his 7.8 shots per game - by far the highest in the tournament - on target.

Portugal have often looked like they haven’t been able to figure out the formation that best fits their great star, especially in the dismal last-16 tie against Croatia, often forcing him into frustrated efforts. Ronaldo does at least look in scoring form after his two against Hungary, though. That isn't the case for Lewandowski, who has barely been able to get into shooting positions. He has only managed two per game, just the 53rd highest in the tournament, but that likely comes from sacrificing himself for others. Lewandowski has taken a lot of heat, as illustrated by the fact he is the most fouled player in the campaign on four a game. Unless he can now offer a bit more when needed most, a cautious but tight Portugal should have too much. 

Wales vs Belgium 

Much has been made of how this is a repeat of the qualifying games, with Wales bullishly talking about how they are Belgium’s bogey team, but the wonder is whether they are even the same sides. Chris Coleman’s squad have of course gone through the kind of confident growth that only happens when you go through a tournament there, just infusing the group with so much more assertiveness, while Belgium look like they at last have the formula to get the best out of so many of their attackers. How else to explain the fact Eden Hazard is the player with the most dribbles at Euro 2016, on 5.5, and Kevin De Bruyne is the player with the most key passes, also on 5.5. It has added up to them being top scorers (8 goals), and Belgium now have attacking force from all angles.

They are up against an emboldened defence, however, and one that has seen James Chester make more interceptions than anyone else in the competition with 3.8. Wales as a whole make more interceptions than anybody else on 17.8. That speed of movement is the perfect platform for Gareth Bale, who takes the second highest number of shots per game (4.8) after Ronaldo (7.8). The threat of the Real Madrid player may pin Belgium back a bit more, but this looks like it’s going to come down to whether Wales can keep Marc Wilmots’ attack out long enough to set up a goal that allows them to play the perfect countering game. 

Germany vs Italy 

By far the most talented squad in the competition against by far the most talented manager in the competition, and thereby potentially the real final before the final. It does provide the most intriguing challenge, as Antonio Conte tries to figure out how to stop the smooth-running German machine. Everything suggests they are up a level from an ultimately disappointing Spain, so Conte is going to have to up it. Germany have the most possession at Euro 2016 with 64.1%, take the most shots (20.8) and concede the least at 5.3. In the middle of all that, Toni Kroos dictates things, with 111 passes per game.  

It will be interesting to see what Conte comes up with but stifling that area could be the key, especially since the Italian completely disrupted Spain’s passing in the last 16, to the point Vicente Del Bosque’s side just couldn’t press or move in the same way. His side are of course willing to go furthest in more ways than just running. They make the most fouls in the competition at 17 per game. This is likely going to take everything, in what could be the game of the tournament. 

France vs Iceland 

So, whose party really is this? The hosts or the side that have made it their own? It’s getting increasingly difficult to dismiss the hugely combative Iceland, who make more tackles per game than anyone left in the competition at 18.3. If France admitted they were worried by Ireland and to “dig deep” in that game, they’re likely going to have to do even more. They’re going to have the break one of the most resilient sides in the competition. It is not just that they are so hard to beat, it’s that they don’t know when they’re beaten either, coming from behind against both Portugal and England.  

Roy Hodgson’s side have often looked like an inferior version of France, in the sense of having good players but not yet a workable system, and Iceland’s best source of victory could be further disruption. Ironically, though, that could force the French to go direct and win the game. Didier Deschamps’s side have scored more headers than any one else with three, with two of them facilitated by the movement of Antoine Griezmann rather than physicality. It perhaps explains why they slightly lead Iceland in terms of aerial duels, 23.8 to 22. Iceland are going to have rise higher than they ever have, while France are going to have to really dig in.

Who do you think Euro 2016's semi-finalists will be? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below