The Expert: Can Tottenham crush Manchester City's title hopes on Saturday?

On the eve of Tottenham Hotspur’s trip to Manchester City, and after a week where Mauricio Pochettino has been typically trying to build his players up to another frenetic level of performance, he predictably played the potential consequences of the game down. 

“It is too early to talk about decisive games, or decisive points to achieve big things,” the Argentine insisted. “It’s too early. There are a lot of games ahead.” That will all be completely true if Manchester City win or draw, making it just like all the other top-six clashes that are so hyped beforehand, but don’t have as much significance as you would expect with the passing of a few games. 

If Tottenham win, though - for what would be the fourth successive game against City and second successive in Pep Guardiola’s reign - it could be very different. It might not be “decisive”, but it could dictate an awful lot of the season. For one, it would emphasise that Tottenham really mean business, that they are properly back in another title hunt. To follow the win over leaders Chelsea, on this run of form, with another win away to City would be a serious assertion of their quality. That has already been suggested for some time, though. 

What would be really remarkable, and really dramatic, would be if Guardiola lost again. It would turn a tough period into an outright crisis. With a home defeat to a rival following a battering to Everton in an underwhelming run, there would be no other way to spin it, and it would leave the Catalan with a tough situation to turn around. Those are the true stakes of this game and that is what it is really about: the result that would see Spurs really pushing in, and City sinking into a real problem. 

There is something else flavouring it, though. 

Having looked so lusciously brilliant in the build-up to that October match between the sides - to the point that so much of the pre-game discussion was about how they could be stopped - City have never quite been the same since Spurs so overwhelmed them, but the rub is that Spurs themselves are playing so much better than then. 

Much more impressively, and as Pochettino has been so insistent about, they are playing better than this point last season - when they first started to open eyes. The bare stats back up the manager’s comments. Spurs have nine more points than after the same number of games last season, and have scored nine more goals. 

What is really telling, though, is the elevation in performance from the January to April spell last season. As excellent as Spurs were then, their run was based on relentless power - but they often buckled when that power couldn’t overwhelm teams. 

There has been a difference this season. There has been more nuance to their play of late, as illustrated by Christian Eriksen’s penetrating balls, Dele Alli’s glorious chip for Harry Kane’s hat-trick strike against West Brom, and the calculated way the former two combined for the goals against Chelsea. Moments like this have seen Spurs score 3.17 goals per game in the last six, compared to 2.07 in the main 15 of last season’s run. It has also come from a greater proportion of possession, at 62.3% compared to 58.6%. 

Pochettino’s side are, in short, beginning to confidently purr in the way that only comes when a team properly realises how good it is. City, meanwhile, seem to be suffering a crisis of confidence - at least in the face of any attack. It says much that Everton scored four goals from four shots in that pummeling. The contrast from the excellent run before the 2-0 defeat at White Hart Lane and the uncertain period after it says even more. City scored three per game in that spell, compared to 1.53 after it, and conceded 0.83 compared to 1.4. 

So, what does all that say for Guardiola? Since Pochettino seemed to know precisely how to approach City in that match, and the Catalan hasn’t exactly altered his side’s approach, surely Spurs can overwhelm them once again if the teams even go close to recent form? 

Football is rarely that simplistic, though, and Guardiola remains one of the most sophisticated coaches in the game - even if he hasn’t shown it of late. He needs to show it now. He needs to find a way to force Spurs’ game back. It is one of the other distinctive features flavouring this game. For all the talk of Espanyol-Barcelona, and superficial similarities in style, the two managers both apply approaches that - when played close to their maximum - almost render the other team irrelevant.

This game now has significant relevance. Guardiola needs to get City playing close to that maximum, or there could be maximum consequence for a one-off match.