Statistical Comparison: World Cup Selection Dilemma - Pickford vs Butland
After it was confirmed that Jack Butland would start tomorrow night’s friendly with Italy, the battle for the place between the posts for England is becoming quite clear.
The Stoke stopper looks to be a in a straight shoot out with Jordan Pickford, who did his own chances of being first choice no harm with an assured display against the Netherlands last week.
Joe Hart appears to be the favourite to complete the party of keepers selected for the World Cup in Russia, if only for his popularity within the squad rather than his clearly diminishing ability, while Nick Pope’s dream of a shot to prove his worth may remain just that - a dream - despite his excellent form for Burnley this season.
It’s the uncapped 25-year-old, after all, that boasts the superior WhoScored.com rating of the four this season (7.00), conceding the fewest goals by a distance and comfortably boasting the best success rate (77.5%), but his inexperience in the immediate build-up to the tournament looks to have been costly.
So which of Pickford and Butland is the better option?
There’s certainly not a lot to separate the two in terms of statistics this season, with both being kept busy by abject defending in front of them for the most part.
It’s Butland that has produced more saves per game (4.0) than Pickford (3.3), and at a greater success rate (69.6% to 65.6%) but the latter has conceded fewer goals per game (1.6 to 1.8) and kept more clean sheets (seven to five).
The Everton man has claimed marginally more high balls into the box per game too (0.5 to 0.4), but the Potters number one has come off his line to sweep up play considerably more, and it’s the statistics in terms of distribution that may come as a surprise.
It’s the area in which Pickford is seen to have the edge, displaying good composure in Amsterdam on occasion on Friday, but neither keeper even remotely plays in the way that Gareth Southgate hopes to at the World Cup.
The England boss is an advocate of passing out from the back, starting with his goalkeepers, while both Everton and Stoke tend to opt for a far more direct route to their strikers. Indeed, Jack Butland has averaged the third most long balls per game in the Premier League this season (10.6), whilst Pickford (9.2) is also among the top ten.
Somewhat renowned for his technique when kicking from his hands, the Toffees keeper’s long ball accuracy (35.3%) is actually inferior to Butland’s (38.2%) - with both ranking among the worst four players in the league for overall pass accuracy.
With very little between the two this season, it could come down to fine margins in each players ability to play out calmly from the back. It’s up to Butland to better what Pickford managed against the Netherlands, earning the WhoScored.com man of the match award (7.78 rating) and perhaps just edging in front in a race for the number one jersey that looks like going right to the wire.
Either way, it’s far from ideal preparation for a major tournament to have so much mystery regarding a first choice keeper, and it’s a decision Southgate will want to be much clearer on after the Italy game on Tuesday.
