Team Focus: Who Are Germany's Main Rivals For Euro 2016?

If Germany were fourth favourites for the World Cup behind Brazil, Spain and Argentina at the start of the tournament, then they are unlikely to occupy a similar position in the stakes for Euro 2016 – and not only due to the absence of the South American pair. Joachim Löw had not only the best team in Brazil, but an incredible amount of options at his disposal. So who can challenge them in France?

Despite their own encouraging display this summer (and a close quarter-final against Germany that looks more laudable with time), the hosts have work to do. The (globally) good news for Les Bleus is that the vast majority of their squad are young enough to still be around their best when the tournament arrives. There are exceptions, though, with the biggest concerns in the creative department.

Mathieu Valbuena is perhaps chief among those, as he’ll be 31 when the tournament kicks off. He was key for France in Brazil, with only Karim Benzema (7.91) rating higher than him among players who played more than once. As he looks to seal a move away from Marseille in the coming weeks, even the next season will be crucial in seeing if he can maintain his status in Didier Deschamps’ side.

His high wage demands appear to be pricing him out of a move to one of his preferred destinations – Monchi, Europa League winners Sevilla’s sporting director, already made clear that they had no chance of matching Valbuena’s pretensions – so it looks as if a switch to Dinamo Moscow could be on the cards.

Even if we accept that the gap between Valbuena’s World Cup performances (an average WhoScored rating of 7.49, 3 key passes per game) and his Ligue 1 ones for Marseille (7.04 over 30 starts, 2.6 key passes per game) is appreciable, it would clearly be more beneficial to France if he took a step up in terms of competition, to Spain, Germany or England.

Valbuena’s step up during this summer was particularly important in the absence of Franck Ribéry, who will perhaps reflect that Brazil could have been the crowning moment of his career. The major problem is that Ribéry will be 33 by Euro 2016 and given his chequered fitness record over the years, his presence cannot be counted upon. While he keeps producing for Bayern Munich, Deschamps will hope that he can maintain his fettle until 2016. Ribéry was not only Bayern’s best but the Bundesliga’s as a whole last season, scoring 8.24 with 10 goals and 10 assists in just 18 starts.

It may be that the responsibility falls to Rémy Cabella, who is set for a big season having just joined Newcastle United from Montpellier. The 24-year-old is good at shouldering the load, having scored 14 times and provided 5 assists in a team that finished 15th in 2013/14 – overall, he was directly implicated in 42% of their goals. He also has the versatility to thrive in various positions across the forward and midfield lines.

The Netherlands already have plenty in terms of young talent, with their typical XI in Brazil having an average age of 26.18. Yet their forward line will need addressing too. The back eight are an average 24.75, while the top three of Wesley Sneijder, Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben are all 30. Other forward options include Klass-Jan Huntelaar (30) and Dirk Kuyt (33).

Belgium look solid, having conceded just 3 times in 5 World Cup games. They have the capacity to entertain, with their 18.6 average shot count behind only Ghana (18.7). This could be augmented by the return of Christian Benteke and (we assume) the gradual incorporation of Thorgan Hazard, who will spend the coming campaign on loan at Borussia Mönchengladbach.

They have a youthful squad too, of course – of the outfield players, only Vincent Kompany, Thomas Vermaelen and Laurent Ciman of Standard Liège will have hit 30 by the time they reach France. Goals come from all around the team (6 different players scored in Brazil) but a poacher would be handy (no player scored more than once).

Then there’s Spain. An overhaul of personnel is probably overdue, though not necessarily of philosophy. Despite predictably having the most possession in Brazil (61.4%), they managed just 12 shots per game, 22nd of the 32 finalists and behind supposedly negative sides such as Greece and Switzerland. Diego Costa should do something to remedy that in France; he can hardly be judged on his World Cup state of fitness having scored 27 times for Atlético Madrid last season. Only Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo scored more in La Liga.

Defence is clearly an area that needs work. One wonders if Gerard Piqué (who rated 5.93 in his one World Cup match against Brazil) with Javi Martínez is a strong option, though the latter will need more club game time (and in defence), after a measly 14 Bundesliga appearances last season. It is plain that Iker Casillas, the lowest-rated player in Brazil (4.76), is under intense scrutiny.

Finally, it’s worth factoring into the mix for two years time that Germany themselves can improve. As excellent as Benedikt Höwedes was as the tournament went on – he was fifth in the squad’s average WhoScored ratings, with 7.23 – the Schalke skipper was a makeshift option at left-back, not playing a single match there for his club all season.

Dortmund’s Marcel Schmelzer (currently 26 years old) must expect to come back into the picture, with his clubmate Erik Durm, who did go to Brazil and is four years his junior, a serious rival. Interestingly, the primarily attack-minded Durm made as many tackles (2.4 per match) and more clearances (3.1 as opposed to 2.8) than Schmelzer in Bundesliga matches last season.

Up front, Mario Gomez will also hope for a return as Miroslav Klose’s replacement after a season blighted by injury, but the addition of another injured absent in Marco Reus promises to be the most crucial difference – he rated 7.9 in 26 Bundesliga starts after scoring 16 and providing 13 assists. Many will be keen to see how 21-year-old Kevin Volland develops in the interim, after 11 goals and 4 assists in 32 starts for Hoffenheim last season (7.29).

Germany seemingly have all the cards to extend their dominance. Their rivals will be glad of having two years, at least, to work on some solutions.

Who do you think will win Euro 2016? Let us know in the comments below