Player Focus: Can Vardy Reproduce Stunning First Half Season Form?

By the time Jamie Vardy next steps onto a football pitch, it’s likely it will have been a month since he last scored in the Premier League. This isn’t something that would normally cause particular shock considering he was only playing non-league football three years ago, but such the standards he has set this season, it has started to pose questions Leicester fans would rather not hear.

It isn’t just the fact that Vardy’s goals have momentarily dried up, but that there is also evidence to suggest he has suffered physically from his remarkable exploits in the first half of the campaign.

The Leicester No.9 will miss their FA Cup third round clash with Tottenham on Sunday after he underwent minor groin surgery to solve a problem that is likely to have been directly caused from the staggering amount of running and relentless pressing he has done so far this season.

Claudio Ranieri will be hoping this period serves as the perfect time for Vardy to take stock and come back ready to help the Foxes resume their title challenge, which has stuttered since Christmas.

Having scored 15 goals in his first 16 league games this season, Vardy is now without a goal in his last four matches (392 minutes). This is hardly a drought when you consider his international compatriot Wayne Rooney only scored his first league goal in over two months at the weekend, but it is still enough of a dip to cast doubts over a player that has never been in this position before.

Depending on whether you read into the headlines that have linked Leicester to other strikers across the continent, it may also be a concern shared by Ranieri. The Foxes haven’t won since before Christmas and have failed to score in each of their last three outings, which provides the Leicester boss with further concerns if neither Vardy nor Riyad Mahrez can get on the scoresheet.

It would be a disservice to completely write Leicester off at this point, mind. Not many expected them to still only be two points off the top when they started their gruelling run of fixtures at the beginning of December.

However, as history has repeatedly shown us, the second half of the season is where all inconsistences are usually ironed out for business to return as normal and Leicester will need Vardy to be on top form if they are to buck the trend and remain in contention for a top four finish.

Other than setting a new Premier League record for scoring in 11 consecutive matches, Vardy ended the year in a club that bears few members. In the last seven league campaigns, only Robin van Persie (2011/12 – 17 goals) and Luis Suarez (2013/14 – 19 goals) can claim to have finished the first half of a league campaign having surpassed the 15-goal mark Vardy reached.

The former Fleetwood Town striker hasn’t scored in nearly a month and only now has Romelu Lukaku managed to catch up with the Premier League’s top goalscorer (15), illustrating what was a formidable patch of form for Vardy.

Importantly, both of those aforementioned strikers finished the campaign with at least 30 goals to their name, with Suarez becoming only the seventh player to do so in Premier League history. It would be a miraculous achievement for Vardy to kick on and score another 15 goals in the remaining 18 league matches and his ability to do so almost entirely hinges on how he returns from injury with time already against him.

There will also be a concern that as this has happened once it could happen again, particularly given the nature of Vardy’s play, which is furthered by his statistically calculated WhoScored strength of ‘defensive contribution’.

Leicester were resigned to their first defeat since October at Liverpool on Boxing Day and it is no coincidence this also coincided with Vardy’s worst performance of the season. In fact, his WhoScored rating against Liverpool (6.12) was by far his worst of the campaign and marked only the second time his performances have dropped below a rating of 7.00.

A hallmark of Vardy’s success this season has been his ability to run defences ragged all game, but against Liverpool he looked shattered and he was unsurprisingly subbed off with 20 minutes remaining.

Vardy’s fair price has been dropping in Buabook’s season market ever since he stopped finding the back of the net and it would represent a huge risk to buy him at £14.00 without first assessing how he returns from the injury that has significantly hampered his progress in recent weeks.

His goals are not only what Ranieri will be hoping for when Vardy returns. It is also interesting to note that while Vardy was nursing his groin injury Leicester were winning possession in the attacking third fewer times per game after Christmas (3.6 times per game) than they were when Vardy was at full tilt prior to the festive period (4.3).

Having only just got off the back of a run of fixtures that was billed as Leicester’s reality check, Ranieri’s men must now gear up for more of the same in a defining period that will see them face off against Spurs, Stoke, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal in their next six Premier League fixtures, three of which - Spurs, City and Arsenal - come away from home. However, if this ridiculous season has taught us anything at all, it is to expect the unexpected. Don’t write Leicester off just yet, and more pertinently, Vardy.

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