Chelsea's Havertz and Liverpool's Nunez feature in the 10 worst xG underperformers
The Premier League has concluded for another year with Man City chasing down Arsenal and winning their third consecutive title. Using their xG model, WhoScored have determined the ten biggest underperformers in the league when compared to their xG totals.
10: Joe Willock – 3.6 difference
Newcastle finished the season in fourth place and qualified for the Champions League for the first time since 2002/2023. Joe Willock played a vital role in the Magpie’s success in the league but WhoScored’s xG model suggests that the Englishman should have more than doubled his goal tally for the year, scoring 3.6 goals more than his 3, from the chances he was presented.
9: Dominic Solanke -3.6 difference
Despite being deemed unfit to survive in the Premier League by former manager Scott Parker, Bournemouth will remain in the top tier next season. Dominic Solanke played a vital role in the Cherries survival, contributing six goals and seven assists. He finished the season as Bournemouth’s third highest rated player (min 10 apps) with a WhoScored rating of 6.79, however he features in the top 10 xG underperformers of the season with an xG of 9.6, a difference of 3.6.
8: Mohamed Salah -3.7 difference
Mo Salah features in the top ten despite scoring at least double the Premier League goals this season than any other player in the list. Only Erling Haaland (36), Harry Kane (30) and Ivan Toney (20) scored more times than the Egyptian’s 19 goals in 2022/23 but Liverpool's top scorer could have had more with his xG coming in at 22.7.
7: Dominic Calvert-Lewin -4 difference
The first representative from Everton, who managed to secure their Premier League status in dramatic fashion on the final day of the season. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has spent most of the season on the sidelines in yet another injury hampered campaign, making just 15 starts for the Toffees, and scoring only twice. The Everton frontman attempted 31 shots, of which 18 were from inside the penalty area and 9 from inside the 6 yard box giving him an xG of 6, with a negative variance of -4.
6: Darwin Nunez -4.3 difference
It’s been an up and down debut season in the Premier League for Darwin Nunez since Liverpool splashed out €75 million on the Uruguayan. He registered 34 shots off target and squandered 20 big chances this season, including four in Liverpool’s 3-1 win over Aston Villa in December. However, he did score nine goals for the Reds in his 29 appearances in his first campaign in England, despite his xG suggesting he should have added 4.3 more goals to that tally, making him the sixth biggest underperformer.
5: Fabian Schar -4.3 difference
Fabian Schar’s presence on this list may come as a surprise given that he is the only defender to feature, not only that, he attempted more shots (56) than any Southampton or Everton player this season. He has been fundamental this season to Newcastle’s overall success but makes the worst xG underperformers after scoring just once from an xG of 5.3.
4: Eddie Nketiah -4.3 difference
Arsenal fell short after sitting at the summit for almost all the entireity of the season, but were caught by Manchester City after a poor run of form when it really mattered. Eddie Nketiah made a total of 30 appearances for the Gunners, with just nine of them coming as starts. He scored four goals in the campaign from an xG of 8.3 and therefore underperformed by a -4.3 margin.
3: Neal Maupay -4.3 difference
The second Everton player to make the list, is Neal Maupay. The Merseyside outfit really struggled for goals (34) throughout the season, with only Wolves scoring fewer (31) and when they needed goals, they very rarely came from their recognised strikers. Maupay, in particular, had a season to forget scoring just the once in 1115 Premier League minutes. His xG for the season comes in at 5.3 with a negative difference of 4.3 goals.
2: Kai Havertz -5.1 difference
It has been a very poor season for Chelsea as they find themselves finishing up in twelfth place, their worst Premier League position in over 25 years. Although Kai Havertz ended the season as Chelsea’s top scorer in the league, with 7 goals, it remains a season he will likely want to remove from his memory as quickly as possible. Only Jamie Vardy was caught offside (29) more times than the German (28) forward and Havertz missed a total of 14 big chances and had 29 shots off target in his 35 appearances. The xG model predicts he should have scored at least 12 goals this season, with a negative difference of 5.1 he is the second biggest underperformer.
1: Patrick Bamford -5.2 difference
No team won fewer games in the Premier League in 22/23 than Leeds, who fell back down to the Championship after finishing 19th, with 31 points. To make matters worse the WhoScored xG model suggests that Patrick Bamford should have contributed an additional five goals for the Yorkshire side. The Englishman hit the back of the net four times throughout the season which falls -5.2 goals behind his expected goals.
