The Expert: Are Manchester United now second best to Chelsea?

There are two reasons why Chelsea look almost certain to win the Premier League this season. One is that they themselves are remorseless, having won 16 of their last 19 league games. Perhaps there has been a slight stutter recently, with points dropped in three of the last six games, but in that time Chelsea’s lead has grown from six points to 10 (or nine if Manchester City beat Bournemouth on Monday). And that is the second reason why they look almost certain league champions: none of their immediate rivals seems capable of mounting a sustained challenge.

In some ways, this is what we expected this season. It always seemed likely that Jose Mourinho, Pep Guardiola, Jurgen Klopp, Mauricio Pochettino, Arsene Wenger and Antonio Conte would take points off each other. It was meant to be a great free-for-all. What nobody expected was that one team would go on such an extraordinary run, a blitz of 13 straight victories that will probably come to be seen as title-winning.

The reasons why are many, some to do with Chelsea’s excellence and the speed with which they adapted to the 3-4-2-1, some to do with the failures of others to adjust to new circumstances and some to do with the fact that Chelsea have had no European football and so have had more time to prepare for games than their rivals (other than Liverpool) without the associated fatigue. But of the others, which at the moment is looking the most impressive?

On Sunday night the five teams in pursuit of Chelsea were separated by just two points (with City still to play Bournemouth). Each has had one miserable spell of form this season in which their manager has been question. It’s possible, if unlikely, that Chelsea’s is yet to come.

In terms of shots per game, it’s Manchester United who come out on top – a surprise given Mourinho’s reputation for preferring cautious football. They’ve had 17.2 shots per game as opposed to Tottenham and Liverpool on 17.1. Chelsea, startlingly, aren’t even in the top six, pushed into seventh by Southampton.

But, on what may be termed the Andros Townsend Principle, it’s worth refining that by looking at shots on target. Chelsea bob above Southampton but they’re still sixth. Liverpool and Manchester United are joint top with 6.3 shots on target per game. In terms of goals scored, we find United in seventh with 38, behind Everton as well as the other members of the top six. Arsenal and Liverpool are the league’s leading scorers with 54, with Chelsea third on 52. The model could be refined further, but those figures suggest both that Chelsea have been very efficient in front of goal and that there might be something in Mourinho’s complaints that opposing goalkeepers always produce their best performances of the season against United.

Liverpool – remarkably – concede the fewest shots per game, with Manchester City second despite having kept only five clean sheets all season – an indication of just how poor the goalkeeping at both clubs has been this season. Chelsea are third in that list with Arsenal seventh, behind Southampton. Chelsea and Spurs have conceded fewest goals, with Manchester United next, but what’s astonishing is that Everton and Middlesbrough have conceded fewer than Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool.

It’s an extremely rough gauge, of course, but those statistics suggest that both Liverpool and City have significant improvement to come if they can find a goalkeeper who actually saves shots, while Manchester United’s league position seems low compared to their stats. Given they’ve only lost one of their last 22 games, and that the second leg of a tie they won, the prognosis, after a difficult start for Mourinho, looks bright.