Statistically assessing who would be the best Dembele successor at Tottenham

With Mousa Dembele currently sidelined, his time at Tottenham is slowly drawing to a close with a whimper rather than a bang. The Belgian’s contract is up at the end of the season and he’s unlikely to see that extended, unless push really does come to shove. Having made just seven league starts this season due to injury, it could be that Tottenham dip into the market in January into order to strengthen in the middle of the park. 

Looking at Dembele’s statistically calculated WhoScored strengths, a number of key traits need to be explored before Spurs can sufficiently replace the 31-year-old. ‘Defensive contribution’, ‘dribbling’ and ‘passing’ are the three areas that any successor needs to be strong in if the team is to move on. As such, looking at four stats in particular - tackles per game, interceptions per game, pass success rate and dribble success rate - we have identified five possible midfielders from across Europe that Spurs could target in the New Year. 

Since the start of last season, these midfielders had to average in excess of 0.9 tackles per game, 0.9 interceptions per game, a 87% pass success rate and a 80% dribble success rate in order to come into consideration. The five doesn’t include Spurs targets Wilmar Barrios and Tanguy NDombele, though they will receive honourable mentions, but rather two La Liga, two Premier League and one Eredivisie player. 

Geoffrey Kondogbia - Valencia 

Geoffrey Kondgobia has long been linked with a move to Tottenham, so much so that even after Valencia confirmed his permanent arrival last summer, rumours were still abound that Spurs were make a move for the Frenchman. Valencia, though, demanded his €80m release clause be triggered before considering any move, that alone would be almost double Spurs’ club-record arrival. Kondogbia’s form this season, however, hasn’t been up to scratch, but that shouldn’t deter potential suitors, of which Spurs could still be one. 

Indeed, since the start of the 2017/18 season, Kondogbia has returned impressive figures of 2.8 tackles and 2.0 interceptions per game, those significantly better than Dembele (1.3 tackles and 1.1 interceptions per game) over the same period. Of the five players considered, Kondogbia’s off the ball stats are the highest, while the 25-year-old hasn’t necessarily faltered in possession either, chipping in with a 87.1% pass success rate and a 87.7% dribble success rate, those not the best, but still notable returns. 

With a WhoScored rating of 7.24 since the start of last season, Kondogbia is perhaps the best all-round fit to replace Dembele in north London. Whether Valencia elect to cash in on him in January is a whole different matter. Spurs should look to dip into the transfer market in January to acquire a new central midfielder, even accounting Moussa Sissoko’s rise as a key player in the XI, but with Dembele and Victor Wanyama’s ongoing injury woes, Kondogbia would be a significant coup in the New Year. 

Stanislav Lobotka - Celta Vigo 

Remaining in Spain, a cheaper, lesser-known alternative for Kondogbia could be Celta Vigo’s Stanislav Lobotka. The 24-year-old put pen to paper on a new deal with the La Liga side in February, which saw his release clause rise from €35 to €50m in order to ward off rumoured interest from Inter. Tottenham were tentatively linked with a move for the Slovakian over the summer, though any transfer failed to materialise. 

With Celta Vigo now turning their fortunes around following the appointment of Miguel Cardoso last month, they aren’t necessarily in a position that requires them to sell their key players, though Lobotka hasn’t played since spraining his ankle at the beginning of November. Needless to say, however, the midfielder is an adept individual when in possession. His dribble success rate (89.7%) and pass success rate (90.5%) is superior to that of Kondogbia, while his tackles per game (1.4) and interceptions per game (1.1) are more comparable to Dembele than the Valencia man. 

Boasting a lower release clause, he would be a more feasible target for Spurs and as the lesser known option, it could be that the Premier League side would have a straight shot at Lobotka should they renew their interest in January. 

Mario Lemina - Southampton 

Focusing closer to home, like Lobotka, Tottenham were also linked with a move for Mario Lemina over the summer as they considered possible Dembele replacements. The Gabon international has failed to start just one league match this season due to suspension for lowly Southampton, who’ll hope the appointment of Ralph Hassenhuttl will go some way to pulling the south coast side away from danger. 

The Austrian’s arrival could muddle things in terms of any possible January move, with Lemina expected to play a central role in midfield, particularly if Hassenhuttl moves to a 4-2-2-2 setup. Off the ball, the 25-year-old has the ability to break up play with ease as returns of 2.3 tackles per game and 1.8 interceptions per game since the start of the 2017/18 season suggests. In possession, too, he’s a tidy individual, with Lemina mustering a 87.2% pass success rate over that time, though in truth, he just makes the cut as his dribble success rate (80.7%) was just over the threshold. 

As we near the festive break, Saints have the means to put a run of form together in order to pull away from the relegation zone and that should strengthen their resolve should Spurs make their move for Lemina in January. Hassenhuttl will be keen to retain the player’s services and that may complicate any potential deal, which in turn could see Spurs look elsewhere. 

Frenkie de Jong - Ajax 

Without a doubt the dream option for many Tottenham fans as a potential Dembele successor, Frenkie de Jong has established himself as one of the finest young midfield talents on the continent. His stock has risen so much so that PSG are rumoured to have won the race to secure his services for €75m, though that’ll remain hearsay until the deal is done and dusted. Barcelona and Manchester City have both been credited with an interest in De Jong, while supporters were perhaps hoping Spurs’ good working relationship with Ajax would come in handy this time around. 

Possibly priced out of a move for De Jong now, he should still be the first choice for the north London side and for good reason too. A pass success rate of 91.4% and dribble success rate of 90.4% are both exceptional to say the least and mirrors the 21-year-old’s WhoScored strengths of ‘passing’ and ‘dribbling’. Having returned a WhoScored rating of 7.38 since the start of last season, De Jong’s rating is the best of the five options, while his style of play in terms of picking up the ball and turning opponents with ease is reminiscent to Dembele in his pomp. 

As previously mentioned, however, De Jong would be the dream addition to the squad, but it is likely to remain just that. If there is even a slither of hope that Spurs can sign the Dutchman, then they should absolutely go hammer and tong to land the youngster, yet the ship has likely sailed on the Ajax sensation, who has the talent and potential to go on and become one of the best in Europe. 

Fabian Delph - Manchester City 

An outside choice and then some, but Fabian Delph could be an ideal fit for Mauricio Pochettino and Tottenham. While his numbers are skewed compared to others having largely played left-back for a dominant Manchester City side, but he still has an impressive pass success rate (92.7%) and dribble success rate (92.5%) since the start of the 2017/18 season, those the best of all five options. On top of that, he has made 2.1 tackles and 1.4 interceptions per game over the same time, both respectable returns. 

In his final season at Aston Villa, where he played his preferred central midfield role, Delph was a key member of the Villans starting XI and having developed and improved significantly since his move to City and worked under Pep Guardiola, the England international could be the experienced option required for Pochettino and Tottenham. 

Injuries have stunted his growth somewhat at the Etihad Stadium, yet he could be a good fit for Spurs provided they could convince City to sell. Delph remains a trusted member of Guardiola’s squad and his versatility is a huge bonus for the Spaniard, yet if handed the opportunity to regularly start in midfield, the 29-year-old could well be convinced by a move to north London if the opportunity arose. There has been no indication that a switch is forthcoming, yet his solid stats since the start of 2017/18 suggests could be an ideal Dembele successor. 

Honourable Mentions 

Wilmar Barrios - Boca Juniors 

Long linked with a move to Tottenham, Wilmar Barrios is again a rumoured target for the north London side and with the Copa Libertadores now over, Boca Juniors would be more willing to cash in on the Colombian. Barrios’ Copa Libertadores ended miserably, with his red card allowing rivals River Plate to steal a march in Sunday’s second leg of the final, yet he is a battling midfielder that would add steel to the midfield as averages of 3.2 tackles and 2.6 interceptions since the start of the 2017/18 Superliga season suggests. 

His ability in possession may be sub-par compared to the above options, with his pass success rate (82.1%) and dribble success rate (78.1%) below the quintet, but he’d be a welcome addition to the Spurs squad. 

Tanguy NDombele - Lyon 

Like De Jong, Tanguy NDombele is another whose midfield talent has a number of big-name teams scrambling for his signature. The Frenchman has gone from strength-to-strength after his arrival from Amiens and his fine showings for Lyon in Ligue 1 and the Champions League has seen the likes of Tottenham, Manchester City and Chelsea take interest. 

His dribble success rate (73.9%) saw him miss out on the initial list of options, but his interceptions per game (0.9) tackles per game (1.9) and pass success rate (88.8%) would have seen him make the grade. That being said, Lyon would be reluctant to cash in on NDombele in the New Year, though that is unlikely to deter interested parties. His ceiling is high and as a possible Dembele replacement, he would be a costly, yet fine, acquisition.