Why Guardiola May Opt for a 3-man Backline in El Clásico

There is a lot of speculation surrounding Barcelona’s defensive system, and whether Guardiola would dare to line-up in the Clásico with three defenders at the back. Considering the fact that Real Madrid have scored 49 La Liga goals this season and are deadly on fast breaks, it is hard to see Barça opting for such a set-up at the Santiago Bernabéu. However, Guardiola’s side have put in some of their best performances playing a 3-4-3 system in comparison to their regular 4-3-3.

Barcelona have only played two away games in La Liga with a 3-4-3, against Sporting – earning a clean sheet, and against Valencia - conceding two goals. However, in the other four games they have played on the road they have let in five goals and only kept one clean sheet, against Granada. While at the Nou Camp, where Barça are still yet to concede a goal, the Catalans have played six games with only three at the back and only 3 games with four defenders (vs Racing, Zaragoza and Rayo).

In addition, in the eight games playing with three defenders, Barcelona have scored 31 goals and averaged 72% of ball possession, while in the six matches with four at the back the ‘Culés’ have scored only 16 goals and are averaging 71% of ball possession.

In fact, Barcelona have not only conceded less goals with three men in defence, but have also conceded fewer shots on target. In five of the aforementioned eight matches playing a 3-4-3 formation, Barça have conceded less than two shots on target and have never allowed their opponents more than four. Meanwhile, with four defenders, Barcelona have conceded 4 shots on target on three occasions and have twice conceded a total of 10 shots - with a defensive line of three they haven’t conceded double-figures in terms of shots all season.

The Catalans have also averaged more tackles per game when they play with three defenders, making 160 tackles in total when playing with this defensive system. In comparison, with four defenders Barça have made a total of 136 tackles. On average, the ‘blaugranas’ have made 20 tackles per game with a 3-man backline, while with four at the back they are averaging one less tackle per game (19).

When considering how a 3-4-3 formation could work against Real Madrid’s dangerous fast breaks one only needs to look to the fact that Barcelona have only conceded one shot on the counter attack with three defenders (against Valencia). When opting for four at the back they have conceded seven shots from fast break situations in comparison, including one goal this season against Real Sociedad. Madrid have also scored more goals on the fast break in La Liga as visitors (five) than at home (four).

Playing with only three defenders could also help Guardiola’s side to win the midfield battle if Mourinho decides to play with three defensive midfielders, as is expected. 

Mascherano the ‘Chief’ of the 3-man Defence

Guardiola defined Javier Mascherano as “one of my little girls” (the other little girl being Seydou Keita) in a press conference, using this pet-name to explain how important the two are for him and his football style.  In the case of Mascherano, the Argentinean in particular has been a key-man in the riskier defensive formation - one of the three defenders in every game that Pep has used the 3-4-3 system.

The ‘jefecito’ has not only been a regular starter in this set-up but has also been the best Barcelona defender so far in La Liga, leading the teams in tackles with 46, interceptions with 36 as well as ranking second best for clearances with 23.

Mascherano is probably the main reason why Guardiola may start with three defenders at the back as he probably doesn’t want to drop his “little girl” for the Clásico. However, it is also hard to believe that the manager will leave skipper Puyol on the bench if he is fit to play, knowing the intensity he always brings against Madrid; although they could all start, with Alves playing as midfield-winger tasked with containing Cristiano Ronaldo on the right side. Guardiola could also start his other “little girl” Keita on the left side of the midfield looking in an attempt to contain the La Liga assist leader Di Maria, who has become Real Madrid’s biggest weapon this season.

Regardless of his decision, Guardiola will be criticized if he doesn’t get a good result at the Bernabéu. If he lines-up with four at the back the critics will call Pep conservative but if he fails to win with three defenders, Guardiola will be branded as too risky. As is always the case in football, only the result dictates if one decision is right or not.