The Expert: Which challenger is best equipped for Premier League title race?

For once, the Premier League might just be living up to some of the hysteria - at least if you go by some of the history. 

Because, after all the pre-season talk that this could be the most competitive season ever, it is currently exactly that. There is only one point separating the top five teams. That is the tightest it’s ever been after nine games - a quarter of the season - since the Premier League was founded in 1992, and in the English top flight as a whole since 1981. 

There’s also the way it’s crackling with uncertainty right now. The recent league runs of the two Manchester clubs emphasise that, but also point to something else. 

One element hasn’t lived up to the hype. We’re not quite seeing all of these teams playing at maximum, pushing each other by being at their best. The circle of new managers haven’t quite taken these teams to new levels. That might of course be inevitable due to that very newness, but it is reflected in how the 20 points accumulated by Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool are the lowest for a Premier League leader after nine games since the 2000/01 season. 

As it is, rather than one side being the strongest, it feels like this title race could come down to who solves their main weaknesses the quickest. 

So, what are those weaknesses? And how are they overcome? 

Manchester City - League Position 1st 

It already feels quite a while since Pep Guardiola’s attack were weaving their way through so many defences - and apparently to the title. That has partly been because Celtic and Tottenham Hotspur got at them, and showed their defence can be exposed, pegging back the whole side and affecting confidence to the point they just aren’t as sharp. The 1-1 draw against Southampton was yet another illustration of the issue. John Stones’s gift to Nathan Redmond was just the continuation of a trend. City have committed the most errors that have led to a shot (6) in the Premier League.  

That feels remarkable for a side as good as this but is actually a continuation of Guardiola’s entire career too. Even going back to his best sides at Barca, the high line and risky way of playing it out from the back meant they always gave up chances. It still worked, however, because the side played to such a level of cohesion that they were always able to score much more than the chances they have up. The risk was worth it. That’s what Guardiola needs to build, because those errors probably aren't going away. 

Arsenal - 2nd 

There have been moments this season - especially in the 3-0 win over Chelsea - when Arsenal have looked as good as anyone, and like one of the most exciting sides in Europe. The key, however, is that we’ve seen that every season, Arsenal always go through these impressive winning spells... but never carry them through. There have actually been four spells since August 2013 when they have gone on winning runs of seven games or more. Middlesbrough just ended the last one, with that 0-0 draw at the Emirates, and it didn’t help we saw another common problem: injury affecting Arsenal’s flow, this time to Santi Cazorla.  

The wonder is whether they can respond better to their confidence being disrupted than in previous seasons. November might tell. None of those runs have actually involved games in the penultimate month of the year, because - for whatever reason - it brings their worst form. They have an average of only 1.59 points per game in November under Arsene Wenger, their lowest of every month. It is unknown whether that is down to physical preparation for fixtures but an improvement here would indicate things can change. They face Sunderland and Bournemouth this November… but also Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. 

Liverpool - 3rd 

With the way they’re scoring, Liverpool haven’t shown too many weaknesses just yet - but that actually throws up the biggest question of all. Since so much of that is based on the seemingly relentless energy that Jurgen Klopp generates in his teams, well, is it actually relentless? Is it sustainable? Liverpool have shown a slight tendency to drop off in the second halves of games, noted in that their WhoScored rating in the first half of league matches this season is the joint-second best (6.60). From the hour mark onwards, however, that figure drops to 6.12, the joint-worst. 

Chelsea - 4th 

Antonio Conte finally seems to have a found a formation that gets the best out of the Chelsea players available, the question is what he could do with players better suited to him. That is probably the side’s main issue right now: mere personnel. Even the doubts about defence, after all, seem to have evaporated. Only three teams have conceded fewer goals, on nine, while only two teams have conceded fewer shots per game, also nine. Can Conte use the lack of European football to drill this side to the maximum, as he did with Italy in Euro 2016, or are they that bit too short? 

Tottenham Hotspur - 5th 

After so impressively beating Manchester City, Spurs have followed it with two draws against West Brom and Bournemouth. That on its own sums up the main problem with Spurs, and something that directly prevented them taking Leicester the distance last season, given the results against West Brom and Chelsea in May: they draw too many games.  

In fact, since the start of the 2015/16 season, Spurs have actually drawn more games than anyone else in the league, on 17. That is 36% of their matches. This run is further explained by the absence of Harry Kane, as it seems to reflect how Spurs can lack that really killer instinct, that title-winning quality that turns hard draws into hard-fought wins. Mauricio Pochettino has talked a lot about changing the mentality of the club. This would be one massive step. 

Manchester United - 7th 

Jose Mourinho’s disjointed start has led to more discussion about United’s problems than any other club but, for all the talk about the defending and the mentality, there is one issue that still stands out: the attacking. United are not playing with any fluency, and Mourinho hasn’t yet figured out how best to arrange his attackers.

It says much that their biggest league win so far, the 4-1 victory over Leicester, saw three of the four goals scored from set-pieces. In general play, United have been predictable, mostly opting for crosses in a way a little reminiscent of David Moyes. Only Southampton and Palace are averaging more inaccurate crosses per game than United, who average 15.4. They also rank eighth for chances created per game, on 11.4.

Which team is best placed to secure Premier League glory this season? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below